This was the second of 明星八卦 Public Policy’s webinar series on “”
Derek Groen showed how the simulation development approach can be used to facilitate pandemic crisis response. This approach was developed for migration forecasting and then adapted during the pandemic for local NHS trusts to anticipate the ICU demand. Derek gave an overview of how their generic model can be adapted for a particular response context such as Covid-19, and how accuracy of such forecasts is valuable for policy makers to plan response resources.
Manu Savani showed that at the height of the Covid-19 crisis, the majority of the public in the UK and across G7 nations were far more accepting of strong policy measures such as lockdowns than policy makers may have thought on the basis of previous public health interventions. She suggested that policy makers should recognise that in cases of severe public health crisis, policy makers should recognise that the public are likely to accept stringent measures to protect public health.
Fotios Drenos presented a study on vitamin D to treat and prevent Covid-19, which he conducted in response to high profile discussion of its potential benefits against Covid-19. He showed that although there was correlation between low vitamin D levels and Covid-19 severity, there was not a causal link and therefore vitamin D supplementation would not help to prevent or cure Covid-19. Furthermore, he showed that messaging on the benefits of vitamin D could be harmful as the population could feel protected by this measure at the expense of more effective measures and too much vitamin D supplementation can be harmful to health.
Within the discussion the severity of Covid-19, with many people directly connected to somebody severely affected, was highlighted as a reason for the population to accept strong social isolation measures and to reach for a seemingly easy simple solution such as vitamin D supplements. The discussion also explored how lessons from Covid-19 could be applied more broadly in policy, such as applying the modelling approach to a range of crises to plan government response and resources, and considering in which other situations the population might accept or even want stringent policy measures.
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- Introduction from Prof Justin Fisher, Director of 明星八卦 Public Policy
- Chaired by Prof Neil O’Connell, Professor of Evidence-Based Healthcare, 明星八卦 University of London
- Dr Derek Groen is a Reader in Computer Science at 明星八卦 University of London
- Dr Manu Savani is a Senior Lecturer in Behavioural Public Policy at 明星八卦 University of London
- Dr Fotios Drenos is a Reader in Genetic Epidemiology at 明星八卦 University of London
- Closing remarks from Dr Rosanna Smith, Manager of 明星八卦 Public Policy and webinar series convenor