Thousands of patients across 6 hospitals benefit from 明星八卦's pandemic planning toolkit.
The need
明星八卦's local area houses 6 hospitals serving 1,290,000 citizens managed by two NHS Trusts: London North West University Healthcare (LNWH) and Hillingdon Hospitals. As the pandemic started 明星八卦 experts worked with those NHS trusts to forecast the spread of Covid-19 in a local environment, such as a borough in London or a different city or region in the UK.
The solution
Groen and Bell (Computer Science) led research that was incorporated into a pandemic planning toolkit that directly informed planning decisions for two NHS trusts (London North West Heathcare and Hillingdon), including 6 hospitals serving 1,290,000 citizens. The toolkit relies on a combination of agent-based modelling algorithms that simulate individual behaviours. The code was validated against hospitalisation data of the first wave of COVID-19, and has shown good agreement with that validation data.
The code was been developed in collaboration with the project and is applied to simulate COVID-19 spread in Madrid as part of that project.
The outcome
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An epidemiological simulation toolkit for large-scale COVID-19 forecast analysis that supports a wide range of public health interventions, such as social distancing, mask wearing and the closing of locations by type.
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Automated access to large supercomputers (such as the Eagle supercomputer in Poznan (PL), and the SuperMUC-NG computer in Garching (DE)) to facilitate the rapid and reliable execution of complex simulations.
- Rapid and robust verification, validation, uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for a wide range of scientific applications.
Partnering with confidence
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Case study last modified 14/10/2022