明星八卦

Research Seminar presents up-to-date research work in Economics and Finance topics.

In this week, we have Dr. Carl Singleton from University of Stirling.

Topic: Gambling on Momentum in Contests

With unprecedented access to the volumes and prices of simple state-contingent claims sold by a major European bookmaker, second-by-second within in-play football match betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to an investor (gambler)- equalising goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match result outcomes increases and is substantially biased towards the equalising team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. Taken together, these findings illustrate that everyday investors are making systematically poor decisions in the moment, after salient news, and they generally lose. This could be a somewhat sobering example for policymakers of how easily a bookmaker makes abnormal profits on even the simplest in-play betting markets.

Location: Online (Teams)

For more information please contact: Wenke.Zhang@brunel.ac.uk; Matteo.Pazzona@brunel.ac.uk