明星八卦

After more than a week of intense fighting between Sudanese government troops and paramilitary forces in Khartoum, many western countries – including the US and UK – are evacuating their nationals from the strife-torn city.

While the conflict has been billed as a clash between rival warlords, there are questions about the role played by the private Russian mercenary company, . This group, allegedly associated with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ally Yevgeny Prigozhin – although he has denied any involvement – is heavily engaged in several African countries,  regional instability.

Aid organisations have warned of a  as, in recent days, tens of thousands of people have fled Sudan to neighbouring countries that already face their own internal issues.

The potential involvement of Russia and the shadowy Wagner Group in the region complicates things further. While the group  involvement in the current conflict in Sudan, these denials appear .

There is  of Wagner’s role in arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces which are engaged in a violent power struggle against the Sudanese military. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, this week confirmed Washington’s belief that the group of mercenaries is involved in the conflict, stating:

We do have deep concern about the engagement of the Prigozhin group (the Wagner Group) in Sudan … Its engagement simply brings more death and destruction with it.

Wagner Group in Africa

Students taking the Master’s degree in intelligence and security studies at 明星八卦 were tasked with assessing the capabilities and intentions of the Wagner Group (and Russia) in Africa. They collected publicly available material (sometimes referred to as “”) to assess the group’s influence. This information was then subjected to structured analytic techniques used by the UK intelligence community and elsewhere, as part of a  to prepare the students for roles as professional intelligence analysts.

They found numerous examples of how the Wagner Group has expanded its operations in recent years – often at the request of national governments. In January, the UK Ministry of Defence  there were as many as 5,000 Wagner operatives across Africa in 2022.

Despite the war in Ukraine, leaked  suggest the group is developing a “confederation” of anti-western states. These include Chad, to the west of Sudan, where US intelligence reports allege that Wagner mercenaries are involved in . Chad is a key ally of the US in this region of Africa.

Sitting directly beneath Chad is the Central African Republic (CAR), where the Russian ambassador Alexander Bikantov  there are 1,890 “instructors” involved in .

The Wagner Group has reportedly had a presence in CAR for several years, initially providing training and back-up services and latterly involved in combat operations against rebel insurgencies. According to the , although the CAR’s president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, has denied signing a contract with the Wagner Group, “its presence … is barely a secret”.

The Crisis Group’s report continued:

Rather than eradicating armed groups, the contractors are perpetrating abuses that increasingly drive violence in the provinces and fuel guerrilla warfare against government troops by rebels scattered in the bush.

Wagner mercenaries are also reportedly active in Sudan’s north-western neighbour, Libya, which has been in a state of armed chaos since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in 2012. In 2020, the BBC reported a leaked UN document saying there were . They have reportedly been supporting rebel warlord ’s forces against the Tripoli-based government, alongside other mercenaries from Belarus, Moldova, Serbia and Ukraine.

Shifting influence

In Mali, the Wagner Group has supported the military junta to enforce its rule, with a large base at . The group’s increasing influence in that part of Africa has coincided with a dilution of western involvement. In February 2022, the  the withdrawal of its forces after nine years of trying, and failing, to counter Islamist insurgency.

In March 2022, Malian state forces – reportedly supported by “suspected Russian mercenaries” (although no group was identified) –  civilians and militant fighters. Calls by the UN Security Council for an independent investigation into the massacre were , and the UN was not granted  to the site.

There is also growing evidence of the  and the  (DRC). Burkina Faso has experienced two coups in the last 12 months, and is facing escalating threats from .

Russia is courting Burkina Faso through  endeavours, and has stated its intent to aid nations in the  in combating the jihadist threat in their countries. DRC, Mali, CAR and Sudan have all  requiring Russia to remove troops from Ukraine.

It’s unclear to what extent the Wagner Group does the Kremlin’s bidding as Prigozhin himself has repeatedly denied any involvement. But as a private enterprise, the profits for them in Africa are spectacular. And, as with so many of the biggest Russian businesses, Wagner’s successes are owed to the Russian state and the kleptocratic elites who are likely to share in its revenue.

The Kremlin provides direct support where profit interests align with Russia’s political interests. At the moment, the troubled countries in which the Wagner Group is alleged to be involved in conflict and destabilisation provide resources and political support at the UN, which are important for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Further regional instability is to be expected.

明星八卦 MA students Laura Collins, Freya De Santis and Bobby Payne helped research this article which is republished from  under a Creative Commons license.